Main menu


Sportsbooks needed the Colts against the Chiefs.

If the betting strategy in the NFL is to undermine the public, the Indianapolis Colts were all over Sunday as the 4.5-point underdog against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Earlier last week, the Chiefs opened as the 7-point favorites on the streets of Indianapolis. The Colts have looked terrible, going 0-1-1 in his first two games against the Texans in Houston and the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Kansas City beat Arizona in week 1 and Los Angeles in week 2 beat the Chargers and he started 2-0. Unsurprisingly, bettors were all over Kansas City in this match.

The Chiefs were the most popular bet of the week for the public. They had more bets and money backing them than any team in the league on Sunday.Overall, his 81% of bets and his 76% of funds backed Kansas City. .

Nevertheless, the line was dropping. By midweek, Kansas City was just a 5.5-point favourite. With kickoff approaching on Sunday, Kansas City fell into her 4.5-point favorite. Money was coming into Kansas City, but the lines were moving in the opposite direction.

A reverse line movement is when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting action. Sometimes it’s a sharper money indicator in favor of the less popular side. On Sunday, it was clear that sportsbooks had no problem betting on Kansas City.

The Chiefs gave the Colts an early touchdown when Skye Moore muffed a punt inside the 5-yard line. Matt Ryan found Jelani Woods in his 7-0 lead. Kansas City answered with a Travis Kelce touchdown, but Matt Amendola missed the extra.

The Colts kicked a field goal to take a 10–6 lead, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire answered with a touchdown for the Chiefs late in the first half. A controversial two-point conversion from Travis Kelce was allowed to stand after a lengthy review, giving Kansas City a 14–10 lead. The teams traded field goals in the third quarter. Kansas City had the lead, but they didn’t cover.

In the fourth quarter, Kansas City extended its lead and could cover the spread. But Travis Kelce dropped in the end zone and the Chiefs were forced to settle for a field goal.Unfortunately for Chiefs bettors, Matt’s Amendola missed his goal on his 34-yard field. Did. At this point, a Kansas City cover seemed unlikely.

Indianapolis wasn’t content with just covering the spread. The Colts embarked on his 16-play, 76-yard drive with 8:20 off clock. The drive included two 4th-down conversions and was capped off with a 12-yard touchdown to Woods. The score gave Indianapolis a 20–17 lead with 24 seconds remaining.

As we learned in the playoffs last year, that’s plenty of time for Patrick Mahomes to get into field goal range. However, a tip pass led to an interception for the Colts. Kansas City not only failed to cover the spread, they lost the game completely.

The oddsmakers were thrilled. Not only did the majority of bettors who picked the Chiefs to cover the spread lose, but Kansas City’s outright loss certainly blew a ton of parlays. was rewarded. Mass decline doesn’t always work, but in this case it certainly did.

Indianapolis’ defeat of Kansas City was a big win for the sportsbook in Week 3 of the NFL season. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Ravens win, Bills lose

Bettors went crazy for Road Favorites on Sunday, which is always a risky proposition.

The second most popular bet of the day was Baltimore covering as the 2.5-point favorite against the New England Patriots in the Patriots’ home opener. It was a little hairy at times as New England surprisingly maintained the pace of their offense, but the Ravens pulled away late thanks to four second-half turnovers by the Patriots.

Lamar Jackson continues to show why he deserves a big deal as he had four passing touchdowns, added 107 yards and scoring on the ground. Jackson currently has his MVP odds on BetMGM, his 3rd best.

Supporting Baltimore has worked well for bettors, but the same cannot be said for their love of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is his third most popular bet on BetMGM, with his 77% of bets and his 75% of funds, but in a fight against the Dolphins he has the Bills to cover as a 4.5-point favorite. supported.

Both teams appeared to trade haymakers throughout the first half of the game. Midway through the second quarter he was 14-14. However, scoring slowed to the crawl. Tua Tagovailoa had to leave the game for a few plays after hitting his head, but was back in the second half. Bills was cramping in the Miami heat.

Those who had Bill covering 2.5 points in the first half must have been a little annoyed. The Bills got the ball in field goal range, but Joshua Allen struggled on the snap. Since the spike is not a continuous move, it could lead to intentional grounding, so instead Allen executed a play to Stefon his Diggs and the clock ran out. Had Allen spiked the ball as intended, the Bills would have attempted a field goal to cover the first half spread.

Over bettors knew their bets had failed as Buffalo embarked on a 20-play drive with 9:28 off time in the third quarter but eventually settled for a field goal. rice field. Tyler his bass took that kick, but he missed a 38-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter. On the Dolphins’ next drive, Chase Edmonds gave Miami a 21–17 lead in touchdowns.

Buffalo had another massive drive, traveling 73 yards in 8:19 and 17 plays. However, the bill went empty after Josh Allen missed Isaiah McKenzie in the end zone at 4 and 2 from the 2-yard line. Miami took over the game with less than two minutes remaining, but their end was forced to punt from his zone after the Bills ran out the timeout. That’s when the infamous bat fumble occurred.

The safety was actually a plus for Miami as the ensuing free-kick gave them more space and space. Buffalo moved the ball down the field, but Mackenzie failed to get out of bounds and the clock ran out before Josh Allen could spike the ball. Not only did Miami cover as his 4.5-point underdog, but he won at the money line as a +180 underdog. Between the Bills and Chiefs, many Moneyline his parleys went up in smoke.

Lion, Dolphin and Falcon remain full ATS

A straight-set win by Miami as a 4.5-point underdog improved them to 3-0 over the spread to start the season. The Dolphins are one of his three teams to start the season 3-0 against the spread.

The Atlanta Falcons also started the season 3-0 against the spread, beating the Seattle Seahawks as 1-point road underdogs. Detroit also remained perfect against the spread, losing to the Minnesota Vikings by 4 points as a 6.5 point underdog.

The New York Giants have a chance to join this group on Monday night. They are now 2-0 to the spread. New York is a one-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday.

On the other side of the equation, three teams have yet to cover their spreads this season.

New Orleans is 0-3 on the spread after losing to the Carolina Panthers as a 2-point road favorite on Sunday. He is 0-3 against the Las Vegas Raiders also spread. New England is 0-2-1 and pushing as a 3-point favorite against Pittsburgh in Week 2.

Three teams, Detroit, Cleveland, and Atlanta, have all three games above their combined total. Meanwhile, five teams trail him 3-0: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver, San Francisco and Indianapolis. The Giants and Cowboys are 2-0 and could join the list tonight. The total is set at 39.5 points.

the weak keep rolling

If you’re helping underdogs in the last two weeks of the NFL season, that’s a lot. On Sunday, the underdogs went 9-4-1 against the spread. Eight of those underdogs won straight out. The only underdog who covered the spread but didn’t win the game was Detroit, who were leading into the final seconds against the Vikings.

After the favorites and underdogs split Week 1, the underdogs took over. Over the past two weeks overall, the underdog is 19-10-2 against the spread. Even more impressive is that 15 of the 19 underdogs that covered the spread won the game outright.

If we were blindly betting on the underdog against the spread, we would have won 60% of our bets this season. That win rate is 65.5% for him over the past two weeks. Many of the expected bad teams may not be as bad as we thought. Teams like Atlanta, Houston and Chicago have shown a surprising number of fights.

This also shows that if the underdog likes to cover the spread, you’re doing yourself a disservice if you’re not sprinkling money on the money line as well.